Labour surges and Reform falls as Andy Burnham marks first 100 days
In the 100 days since Andy Burnham became prime minister, Labour’s poll share has risen sharply while Reform’s support has slipped.
Poll averages compiled by the Press Association indicate that Labour’s support has risen steadily since Andy Burnham took office on July 20, moving from 19% in late June to 29% in the week ending October 25, the highest level since 2024. Reform, which previously led the polls, fell from 27% earlier in the year to 22% now, while the Conservatives have remained near 20% before a slight uptick that puts them level with Reform at 22%.
The Greens slipped from 13% to 10% and the Liberal Democrats from 12% to 9% over the same span. Pollsters such as Ipsos, Survation, YouGov and Opinium attribute Labour’s rise to a “resurgent” left and note shifting dynamics on the right, with the Conservatives showing a modest recovery. Analysts caution that polls are snapshots, not forecasts, and political volatility remains high.
Why it matters
The shifting poll numbers signal changing voter sentiment ahead of the next UK general election.
How this story developed
- Oct 13 YouGov poll puts Reform back in third place for the first time since early 2024
- Oct 18 The latest poll shows the Conservatives now ahead of Reform UK as the main opposition.
- Oct 19 Official data show more than 200,000 migrants have received indefinite leave to remain in Britain since the government announced stricter rules, while Labour leaders clash over the proposal.
- Oct 23 The Energy Secretary publicly declined to endorse the extended settlement proposal.
- Oct 24 Burnham called for an honest conversation about re-establishing freedom of movement with the European Union, noting that leaving the bloc ended the UK's access to Eurodac migration data. He suggested the Labour manifesto could later include options ranging from full EU membership to single-market participation, while ruling out joining the euro or Schengen. The prime minister has pledged to keep current migration red lines until after the next general election. Burnham will address these ideas at an EU summit in Brussels on November 20.
- Oct 25 Burnham, now prime minister, has shifted from planning to address the issue at an EU summit to urging an evidence‑based debate on free movement.
- Oct 26 Burnham said he may make EU re‑entry a central issue in the next general election.
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