Lawmakers Warn Prediction Markets May Profit From Wildfire Bets

Democratic senators from six states sent a letter to the chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, urging tighter control of prediction-market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. They point to earlier wagers on the January 2025 Palisades and Eaton wildfires, which caused 31 deaths and razed more than 16,000 buildings, as evidence that betting on disasters could encourage arson. The letter, signed by figures like Adam Schiff and Amy Klobuchar, warns that such markets may let affluent individuals profit from community suffering.

While nations including Singapore, France and Belgium have prohibited these apps, U.S. regulators have not yet taken comparable action. The senators also raise broader ethical issues about wagering on climate change impacts and medical trial outcomes, suggesting the practice undermines public trust in research and safety. Their appeal seeks to prevent financial incentives from influencing the severity or occurrence of catastrophic events.