Likud primaries could push Netanyahu further right, jeopardizing his re-election bid

Likud’s internal primary on Monday will determine the slate of candidates for the upcoming October elections, a process that could shift the party further to the right. Polls indicate the party’s popularity has dropped sharply since the Oct. 7 Hamas assault, and analysts fear that a roster dominated by hard-right populists could cost Netanyahu a third of Likud’s seats. An Agam Labs survey found 54.9% of Likud voters desire a centrist coalition, yet only about one-third of the party’s 140,000 members share that view, with two-thirds preferring a continuation of the current ultra-Orthodox and nationalist coalition that includes Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism.

Netanyahu has pledged to bring in moderate candidates to balance the list, but a senior former Likud one outlet says the strategy is not succeeding. Party officials declined to comment, while political scientists note that undecided voters—about 20% of the electorate—will be crucial in deciding the election’s outcome.