Lithuania says Russian provocations persist but no new escalation looming

Lithuanian security experts and officials stress that Russian hybrid tactics - including sabotage, cyber-operations and isolated drone flights - remain ongoing, but they see no indication of a new large-scale escalation. Deividas Šlekys, a military scholar, says Russia is unlikely to launch a full-scale invasion this year and will instead favor pinpoint provocations designed to panic the public and test NATO unity. Vilmantas Vitkauskas, head of the National Crisis Management Centre, notes that Lithuania has recorded several such incidents since 2024 and has bolstered protection of strategic sites.

He urges citizens to rely on official information and avoid spreading rumors. Parliamentary member Tomas Martinaitis and Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius echo the view that the overall threat level is unchanged, despite Moscow’s rhetoric aimed at undermining confidence in NATO and the EU.