Lula's advantage over Flavio Bolsonaro shrinks in latest runoff poll

According to a CNT/MDA poll released on Tuesday, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s projected share in a second-round contest has slipped to 48.0%, while Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, would obtain 39.1%. The fieldwork took place between August 5 and 9 in 140 Brazilian municipalities, with a reported margin of error of 2.2 points. Compared with a June survey that placed Lula at 49.3% and Bolsonaro at 36.8%, the gap has narrowed.

In a hypothetical first-round vote, Lula would hold 42.4% of the electorate, virtually unchanged, and Bolsonaro would have 28.7%, with Ronaldo Caiado at 4.0%, Romeu Zema at 3.3% and Renan Santos at 2.8%. Should no candidate exceed 50% in the first round, the top two would advance to a runoff in October.