Mary Peltola Maintains Lead Over Dan Sullivan Ahead of Trump Rally in Alaska

Recent polling indicates that former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola holds a six-point advantage over incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska, with a first-round lead of 48.2% to 42.6% and a final-round projection of 50.1% to 48%. An earlier poll of likely voters gave her a 51% to 49% edge after ranked-choice tabulation. Prediction markets have widened the gap, assigning Peltola roughly a 73% probability of victory compared with about 27% for Sullivan.

The race gains added attention as Donald Trump plans a rally in Wasilla on Oct. 13 to promote Sullivan’s re-election, and Vice President JD Vance recently addressed supporters in Fairbanks. Analysts note that Alaska’s new top-four ranked-choice system and the absence of any other Democratic candidate may benefit Peltola, while the outcome could influence the Senate balance in the midterms.