Mexico Limits Fracking While Still Dependent on U.S. Natural Gas

Mexico plans to boost domestic gas output but will keep importing most of its supply, as the government bans fracking in the southern Tampico-Misantla basin.

Mexico’s daily gas need of about 9 bcfd is currently met largely by pipelines delivering 6.5 bcfd from the United States, or 75 % of total consumption. A government-appointed commission has recommended expanding domestic output, and state oil firm Pemex targets 4 bcfd by 2030, a notable increase but insufficient to end U.S. imports. The broader energy strategy envisions adding 32 GW of capacity by 2030, including 10 GW of new combined-cycle gas plants and a shift toward renewables, with solar leading the expansion.

While Mexico holds over 140 Tcf of unconventional gas, most of it lies in northern basins that could be fracked using saltwater, provided a monitoring system safeguards aquifers and seismic activity. Conversely, the southern Tampico-Misantla basin, rich in shale oil and unconventional gas, is off-limits due to dense population, indigenous opposition, and reliance on freshwater aquifers. President Sheinbaum has made the protection of deep saline reservoirs a prerequisite for any unconventional development, adding financial and regulatory burdens to Pemex, which already carries a heavy debt load. If the northern basins can be developed cost-effectively, Mexico may reduce its reliance on U.S. gas while meeting its ambitious power-generation goals.