Mexico unveils 15-year plan to keep oil output steady and boost petrochemicals

Mexico's Energy Secretariat issued a 15-year Hydrocarbons Sector Development Plan that seeks to keep national oil output at current levels until the end of 2039, relying on Pemex, private investors and mixed-development projects. Natural-gas production is projected to stay near 5.0 billion cubic feet per day through 2029, rise to 5.36 bcf by 2035 and peak at 6.66 bcf in 2038, with private firms handling the majority of imports.

The government aims for refinery capacity to operate at about 80 % of its design, including the Deer Park refinery in the U.S., and plans to lift petrochemical output at the Morelos and La Cangrejera sites dramatically. Exploration will prioritize the Sureste Basins and Veracruz Province, targeting the addition of several billion barrels of oil-equivalent reserves between 2026 and 2039. The roadmap is presented amid ongoing fiscal support for Pemex, which has seen modest debt reduction but faces downgrades from Moody's, S&P and Fitch, raising concerns about Mexico's broader credit profile.