Microsoft AI chief revises job-automation forecast, backs economist's modest impact estimate

In a recent X post, Mustafa Suleyman, chief executive of Microsoft AI, endorsed Nobel-winning economist Daron Acemoglu's argument that artificial intelligence will affect a small share of employment, estimating roughly 5% of tasks could be automated in the next ten years. This marks a sharp reversal from his February interview, where he warned that most white-collar functions—including accounting, legal services, marketing and project management—might be fully automated within 12 to 18 months, a prediction that prompted comments from figures such as Senator Bernie Sanders.

Suleyman shared Acemoglu's essay from the inaugural issue of The Humanist Review, a Microsoft AI-published magazine, emphasizing the need for AI that augments rather than replaces workers. Acemoglu argues that current industry incentives favor automation and proposes policy changes such as tax reforms, stronger antitrust enforcement, and support for "pro-worker AI" tools. The essay also critiques Microsoft’s own strategy, noting its acquisition of Nuance and lack of consumer-focused products. Microsoft AI did not immediately respond to inquiries about the shift in outlook.