Middle East oil shipments top pre-war levels despite rising tanker attacks in Hormuz
Middle East crude exports surpassed pre-Iran war volumes in late September, even as tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz increased.
Shipping intelligence from Kpler indicates that Middle East crude exports exceeded the levels recorded before the February 28 Iran war on four of the seven days in the final week of September, peaking between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day. The seven-day moving average for crude stood at 18.5 million barrels per day on October 1, while total flows of crude, refined products, chemicals and other liquids averaged 22.4 million barrels per day for the week ending September 30.
Concurrently, Marisks documented at least seven hostile incidents involving tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz, including an October 1 projectile strike that set the VLCC Kazimah III ablaze; its crew were evacuated safely. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack per day in the Strait or Gulf of Aden since October 2, describing the threat as increasingly unpredictable. Analysts believe Iranian forces may be firing missiles into a pre-defined “kill box,” where any vessel present could be engaged, rather than selecting specific ships. The owner, Kuwait Oil Tanker Company, has not commented on the incident.
Why it matters
Oil supply routes remain vulnerable, affecting global energy markets despite higher export volumes.
How this story developed
- Sep 11 Smoke spotted near Saudi East-West oil pipeline as Houthi advances intensify
- Sep 25 President Pezeshkian linked the Strait of Hormuz dispute to U.S. sanctions and the naval blockade in his UN address.
- Sep 25 Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian arrived in New York, the first Iranian head of state to set foot in the United States.
- Sep 26 Iran awaited an official U.S. reply to its UN‑transmitted peace initiative.
- Sep 26 In a speech to the UN General Assembly, Han Zheng highlighted China's view that global progress should be built on development and open cooperation. He warned that protectionist policies benefit no one and reiterated support for multilateral dialogue. The address also touched on the Middle East conflict, AI and the Belt and Road initiative, but did not mention Taiwan despite heightened US-China tensions. Analysts noted the speech was routine, with President Xi absent and senior officials rotating representation at the UN.
- Sep 26 Gulf leaders scheduled a meeting with Donald Trump to seek a diplomatic path with Iran.
- Sep 27 Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran will remain resolute and not retreat despite President Donald Trump's rejection of Iran’s seven‑day ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening proposal.
- Sep 28 Han Zheng’s address emphasized Belt and Road cooperation with three‑quarters of participating nations.
- Sep 29 The U.S. Treasury announced sanctions on ten individuals and firms accused of obtaining weapons components for Iran's defence ministry.
- Oct 2 The United States has now sanctioned Iran's automotive and railway sectors.
- Oct 3 A second tanker was hit east of Oman, adding to the earlier incident in the strait.
- Oct 3 A witness observed a large plume of fire and smoke near an Aramco facility in Riyadh on Saturday, with authorities yet to confirm the incident.
- Oct 3 Saudi jets launched 26 strikes on Sanaa following the fire at the Aramco site.
- Oct 4 Houthi spokesperson announced that missiles and drones struck Aramco facilities in Riyadh and eastern Khurais, causing large fires.
In this story
Related stories
27 in this thread