Midterms Could Determine Fate of Trump's Push to Exclude Non-Citizens from Census

The Trump administration has introduced a rule that would omit illegal aliens from the census tally, arguing that non-citizens lack sufficient ties to the United States. It is estimated that removing the roughly 18.6 million illegal aliens from the 2020 count would have flipped eight House seats, mostly from blue to red states, while eliminating all 41 million non-citizens would shift 22 seats. Earlier efforts, such as a citizenship question and a 2020 memo excluding illegal aliens from apportionment, were blocked or rescinded after Supreme Court rulings.

With the midterm elections approaching, a Republican majority in the House and Senate could pass legislation cementing the rule, whereas a Democratic Senate could stall the confirmation of a permanent Census Bureau director, hindering the administration’s plan. The outcome will affect how congressional districts and electoral votes are allocated for the next decade, influencing the balance of power in Washington.