Minnesota Senate contest becomes toss-up as new poll shows dead heat

A new InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely general-election voters conducted Sept. 28-29 shows DFL Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan at 46% and Republican Michele Tafoya at 45%, with Libertarian Rebecca Whiting at 2%, independent Marisa Simonetti at 1% and 6% undecided. Pollster Matt Towery said the survey runs counter to national Senate patterns, attributing the tight margin to Governor Tim Walz’s declining approval and perceived fraud issues that are damaging the DFL candidate.

Towery also observed Tafoya’s strong performance among men and Flanagan’s weakness across most age groups except the youngest voters, who show a notable enthusiasm gap. This poll follows four recent surveys that kept the race within the ±2.95% margin of error, and one outlet has updated its rating from “Leans Dem” to “Toss Up.” Both candidates have exchanged attacks on the campaign trail, with Tafoya linking Flanagan to fraud under the Walz administration and Flanagan tying Tafoya to President Donald Trump and the unpopular Iran war. Minnesota has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 2002, and the election is scheduled for Nov. 3.