Moody's cuts Poland's sovereign rating for first time since 2002, citing fiscal strain

Moody's announced a downgrade of Poland’s sovereign credit rating, moving it from A2 to A3 and changing the outlook from negative to stable, the first such action since 2002. The agency justified the decision by pointing to an anticipated long-term weakening of fiscal strength, higher debt-service costs and a decline in the effectiveness of fiscal policy. Moody's expects the deficit of central and local government bodies to remain roughly unchanged in 2026 and 2027, and it foresees a rise in the overall debt share of GDP over the next few years.

Former deputy prime minister and development minister Jadwiga Emilewicz called the downgrade an “alarm signal,” noting that while Poland is not in a Greek-style crisis, the warning light cannot be ignored. She questioned whether one outlet situation should prompt a fiscal policy correction and advocated for a social contract covering energy, defence and key economic areas, acknowledging the political debate between fiscal tightening and social spending.