Moody's warns that India's falling fertility will usher an ageing population
Moody's Ratings says India's fertility has dropped below replacement level, setting the country on a path toward a much older population later this century.
Moody's Ratings reports that India's total fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1, initiating a gradual ageing of the population. Although the country remains relatively young today, the decline in births will shrink the pool of workers and households, limiting both productive capacity and domestic demand. The agency highlights that this pattern is common among the world’s biggest economies, with more than 70 percent of the global population already living in nations at or below replacement fertility.
Similar demographic shifts are observed in Japan, Korea, China and several emerging markets such as Brazil, Thailand and Turkiye. Moody's warns that sustaining economic growth will increasingly depend on gains in productivity rather than population growth. The analysis underscores the long-term fiscal and social challenges that an older Indian society could pose.
Why it matters
India's ageing shift could reshape its labour market, consumer demand and fiscal pressures for decades.
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