More Undocumented Immigrants Undermine the Case for Mass Deportations

Standard counts place the U.S. undocumented population at roughly 11 million to 15 million, yet some right-wing figures inflate it to 25 million, implying a stronger case for mass deportations. Analysts counter that the math works the opposite way: the Department of Homeland Security estimates an average deportation cost of $18,245, meaning an extra ten million removals would cost about $182.4 billion. Undocumented workers also pay sales, income, Social Security and property taxes, and the Congressional Budget Office notes that recent arrivals would have reduced deficits by nearly $1 trillion over a decade.

Economic research from the Peterson Institute warns that 8.3 million deportations could cut U.S. GDP by 7.4% by 2028, roughly $2.5 trillion. Crime statistics show that undocumented individuals already commit offenses at lower rates than native-born Americans, so a larger pool would further lower the victimization rate. Critics also point to the civil-rights harms of large-scale removals, including racial profiling and the hardship imposed on families and communities.