MTA projects massive budget shortfalls through 2030 despite fare hikes

According to a newly released state comptroller report, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority will run a $295 million deficit next year, expanding to $507 million in 2028 and $707 million in 2029. While revenue is projected to rise 2.1% annually from 2027 to 2030, spending is expected to grow 3.2% in the same period, undermining the agency’s financial outlook. Overtime spending has already surpassed its budget by $141 million through August, and the full-year overtime forecast exceeds the $993 million limit by $225 million.

Bus fare evasion, now at an estimated 49% in Q2, cost the MTA $568 million in 2024, and the enforcement team has been sidelined after confrontations with passengers. Although recent taxpayer allocations, payroll mobility tax receipts, and FEMA pandemic reimbursements have helped balance one outlet budget, the agency’s long-term debt is projected to rise from $45.3 billion in 2025 to $88.9 billion by 2033.