New analysis finds Seattle diversion program failed to cut recidivism or boost employment

A policy brief released this month by the Washington Policy Center challenges the touted success of Seattle's Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion (LEAD) initiative. Analyzing 176 participants, the study found arrest rates indistinguishable from a comparable control group and unemployment persisting for 91% of participants, starkly contrasting earlier reports of dramatic job gains. Housing outcomes were similarly weak, with just 19 of 146 initially unhoused individuals finding shelter in any month during an 18-month follow-up.

The original LEAD claims of 58% lower recidivism and high employment and housing rates have guided bail reform and diversion efforts across New York, California, New Jersey and dozens of other jurisdictions. Critics note that the program's accolades, including a 2019 MacArthur Fellowship for architect Lisa Daugaard, were based on anecdotal evidence rather than solid data. The brief urges independent audits and transparent reporting before further public funds are allocated to similar diversion models.