New Croatian seismic map pinpoints highest earthquake risk along Adriatic coast

Researchers from the Geophysical Department of the Faculty of Science in Zagreb, the Faculty of Geotechnical Engineering in Varaždin and the Croatian Geological Survey have produced a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Croatia that incorporates the 2020 Zagreb and Petrinja earthquakes and extensive local soil information. Their interactive map highlights the Adriatic coastline, particularly the Dubrovnik-Neretva region and central Dalmatia, as having the highest expected ground accelerations—about 0.40 g in Dubrovnik and 0.32 g in Split.

The analysis indicates that low-rise, rigid buildings may be subjected to higher loads than those defined in one outlet Eurocode 8 spectrum, while high-rise structures could experience lower demands. Released in September 2026 in the Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, the research is intended as a scientific basis for a new national annex to Eurocode 8, though it does not itself change legal design values. The authors also note that seismic risk in Dubrovnik is influenced by fault zones in neighboring Montenegro and Albania, and they call for expanded strong-earthquake records and a more detailed national soil database.