New Mexico swing district race neck-and-neck as poll shows virtual tie

A new SurveyUSA poll released this one outlet indicates that incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez holds a slim 46% lead over Republican challenger Greg Cunningham’s 43% in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District, a gap that falls inside the poll’s ±4.6-point margin of error, rendering the contest a statistical tie. The survey of 554 likely voters also shows 11% of respondents undecided. Vasquez’s advantage comes from women and Latino voters, where he leads by 13 and 20 points respectively, while Cunningham is ahead among men and white voters by 5 and 11 points.

The race is a focal point for national Republicans, with House Speaker Mike Johnson visiting the district and the NRCC flagging it as a top pickup target. Former Rep. Yvette Herrell lost to Vasquez in 2024, a year when Donald Trump narrowly carried the district. Fundraising totals as of June 30 show Vasquez with $3.78 million raised versus Cunningham’s $1.51 million.