New model shows Thwaites Glacier could double projected sea-level rise by 2100

Scientists have built a new model of Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier that better reflects the complex physics of its grounding zone, where warm ocean water infiltrates beneath the ice. Satellite data from the ICEYE constellation showed seawater reaching several miles under the grounded ice, lifting it during tides and promoting rapid melt. The model predicts up to 1.2 inches (30 mm) of sea-level rise by 2100, double earlier forecasts, and a 60% probability that the glacier will lose its anchor on the Mouginot Ridge by the end of the century.

If the glacier were to collapse entirely, it could add roughly 26 inches (65 cm) to global sea levels, threatening coastal communities worldwide. The findings, published in Nature Communications, underscore heightened risks of coastal flooding in coming decades.