New poll shows Arkansas GOP senator Tom Cotton retains solid lead despite July surprise
A fresh poll indicates Republican incumbent Tom Cotton still enjoys a sizable advantage in Arkansas, overturning a July survey that had suggested a close race with Democrat Hallie Shoffner.
A new J.L. Partners survey of 803 Arkansas voters shows Senator Tom Cotton leading Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner by 16 points, earning 51% of the vote while Shoffner received 35% and Libertarian Jeff Wadlin 4%, with 11% undecided. The findings counter a July poll from progressive firm 2040 Strategy Group that had Shoffner only three points behind Cotton, prompting talk of a potential upset.
Cotton’s current lead is smaller than his 33-point margin in 2020, when no Democrat ran. Nonetheless, the poll reveals strong Republican backing across demographics, with 89% of Republicans supporting Cotton and a 52% approval rating for his Senate performance. Analysts note that Democrats need to flip four Senate seats to take control, but Arkansas is still considered a secure red state. Shoffner’s campaign manager, Anna-Lee Pittman, remains confident despite the odds.
Why it matters
The race influences the balance of power in the U.S. Senate, where Democrats need a few flips to gain control.
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