New rebel coalition targets Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed amid Ethiopia's chronic conflict cycle

On September 20, rebel groups formed the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, a coalition of seven movements including the Tigray People’s one outlet Front, Amhara Fano National Movement, Oromo one outlet Army and four groups from the Somali, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz regions, aiming to topple Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Coordination meetings involved military and security representatives from Eritrea and Sudan, highlighting external involvement.

The alliance’s three northern members—TPLF, Fano and Afar National Unity Revolutionary Front—benefit from proximity to Eritrea for logistics. Within days, TPLF forces, together with ANURF, entered several districts of Zone 2 with minimal opposition, while ANURF leader Ibrahim Osman Aliyu urged Afar residents to join or avoid the fighting. The coalition faces internal fractures over territorial claims such as western Tigray, and its diverse membership lacks a unified vision for Ethiopia’s federal structure. The federal government, already battling insurgencies in Oromia and Amhara, must now confront a multi-regional front, while the risk of deeper Eritrean involvement and possible UAE intervention looms.