New Study Finds 93% of Indigenous Australians Died Within 73 Years of Colonisation

Using computer modelling alongside ethnographic, archaeological and genetic evidence, researchers calculated a median pre-colonial Indigenous population of 2.22 million across Australia, roughly 0.29 people per square kilometre. This figure contrasts sharply with earlier 20th-century estimates that placed the number between 250,000 and one million. The same models, applied to early census data, indicate that about 2.06 million Indigenous people died between 1788 and 1861 - an average of roughly 28,200 excess deaths each year - resulting in a 93% decline by 1861.

Lead investigators stress that the scale of this demographic catastrophe has profound implications for understanding intergenerational trauma and for shaping future policy. While the Indigenous population has risen since the 1950s, it remains only about 37% of the pre-colonial estimate, with projections suggesting a return to those levels may not occur until around 2047. The study was published in Nature Human Behaviour and was funded by Australian Research Council Centres of Excellence.