New Study Finds Pre-Colonial Indigenous Australian Population Was Around 2.2 Million
Research published in Nature Human Behaviour estimates that before 1788 Australia was home to roughly 2.2 million Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, far higher than previous figures.
A team from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures has published a model in Nature Human Behaviour that places the Indigenous population of Australia at roughly 2.2 million before the arrival of the First Fleet in 1788, dramatically revising earlier counts of about a quarter-million. The researchers argue that historic under-counts stem from lethal disease outbreaks, frontier violence and the lack of systematic censuses, estimating some 2.06 million excess deaths between 1788 and 1861.
Prof Corey Bradshaw highlighted that a 1789 smallpox epidemic alone may have killed up to 220,000 people, and he believes massacre records are under-. Distinguished professor Larissa Behrendt described the result as a “demographic catastrophe” central to Australia’s story, while co-author Lynette Russell said the findings underscore intergenerational trauma and the need for informed policy. Lead author Alan Williams emphasized both the devastation and the remarkable resilience of Indigenous peoples over the past century.
Why it matters
Understanding the true scale of Indigenous loss reshapes Australian history and informs reconciliation efforts.
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