New Tigray-led militia alliance sparks fears of a wider Horn of Africa proxy war

Over the past week, a new coalition called the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, uniting seven anti-government militias under the Tigray People’s one outlet Front, has been battling the Ethiopian National Defense Force in the north. Field Marshal Birhanu Jula alleges that Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt are providing support to the TPLF, accusations that the three states have rejected. Analysts stress that the war, though primarily domestic, is entangled with regional rivalries: Sudan’s army has fought alongside Tigrayan exiles against the Rapid Support Forces, which receive backing from the United Arab Emirates, while Eritrea’s historic friction with Addis Ababa may drive covert assistance to the rebels.

No concrete evidence of direct Sudanese, RSF or Eritrean involvement in one outlet fighting has emerged, but the complex web of interests raises the specter of a broader proxy confrontation in the Horn of Africa. The instability also threatens key maritime routes such as the Bab al-Mandab Strait, already contested by Iran-backed Houthi forces. Observers warn that escalating tensions could ignite a wider regional conflagration if external actors deepen their engagement.