NOAA map shows expanding drought risk in the Northwest as El Niño strengthens

In its latest winter outlook, NOAA highlighted that a strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely to influence U.S. weather patterns, raising the risk of new or worsening drought in the northwestern region, particularly the northern Rockies, northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington. The Climate Prediction Center noted that El Niño has continued to strengthen, with a high probability of a historic event surpassing past episodes since 1950.

While drought risk rises in those northern areas, the agency projects improved moisture in the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, Southeast and parts of the East Coast. The outlook also maps temperature trends, showing a greater likelihood of above-average warmth across the northern United States and Alaska, with near-normal temperatures expected along the Gulf Coast, including Florida. NOAA meteorologist Scott Handel emphasized that the outlook reflects probabilities rather than specific temperature or precipitation values.