Nobel Peace Prize prospects shift as Mark Carney rises in prediction markets and Donald Trump’s lobbying draws scrutiny

After resuming the presidency in early 2025, Donald Trump has intensified his public campaign for the Nobel Peace Prize, prompting the Norwegian Nobel Committee to note that lobbying will be monitored but does not affect internal deliberations. Prediction‑market data show Canadian leader Mark Carney among the leading individual candidates, with odds in the double‑digit range, while humanitarian groups such as Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms and Doctors Without Borders also rank highly.

Trump's recent war rhetoric toward Iran, territorial claims on Greenland and attacks on international bodies have been cited as factors that have lowered his chances, with markets indicating a near‑zero likelihood of his winning. The committee, which awarded Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado last year, may now look for a laureate with broad consensus.