NYC homicide and shooting rates hit historic lows as police target high-risk offenders

Through July 2025 the NYPD announced the smallest number of murders and shootings ever recorded for that point in a year, with total homicides at 309, the lowest figure since 2018. The department attributes the drop to a strategy that zeroes in on a limited set of high-rate offenders, employing intelligence-driven gang takedowns that removed roughly 500 gang members in 2025. Academic work from the University of Pennsylvania, Boston College and UCLA finds that modest increases in certainty of punishment for such high-risk individuals can dramatically cut shooting victims citywide.

While violent deaths have fallen, most other major felony categories remain above 2019 levels, indicating uneven progress. Commissioner Jessica Tisch and city leaders argue that replenishing the NYPD’s staffing, which is down by about 3,000 officers from a decade ago, could replicate the homicide gains across other crimes. The column calls on Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the City Council to act on this recommendation.