Oil markets hold steady as Hormuz shipments stay uneven and US-Iran talks stall

On Friday, global oil benchmarks barely moved, with Brent at $89.66 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate at $83.21, positioning both for weekly drops of roughly 5% as traders assess the impasse in U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks and a spotty recovery in Strait of Hormuz traffic. Suvro Sarkar of DBS Bank said the transition from military pressure to sanctions and an emerging Iran-Oman corridor reduced market risk premiums.

The strait saw only seven commodity vessels on Thursday, far under the recent 10-day average of 15, while nearby Bab el-Mandeb recorded 17 movements. Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf exports at 15-16 million barrels per day, still 7-8 million below pre-war output but above the March low. Analysts such as John Evans and Anindya Banerjee noted that OPEC developments, China’s demand and potential U.S. actions in Venezuela continue to shape the tight supply picture. In India, MCX September crude fell Rs 49 to Rs 7,915, pressured by speculation over increased Venezuelan output.