Oil shipments surged under US-Iran pact but remain far below pre-war levels

Kpler’s analysis shows that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz nearly tripled while the United States-Iran memorandum of understanding was active, reaching an average of 6.1 million barrels per day, or 374 million barrels in total, which is roughly 40 percent of the 2025 daily average of 15 million barrels. The bulk of these shipments occurred in the first three weeks after the MoU’s June 17 signing, after which the volume declined.

The pact, brokered largely by Pakistan, lapsed without a permanent peace settlement, and commercial shipping remains under threat, with five vessels attacked in the past week. One attack on the Liberia-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Dignity resulted in the death of a crew member, bringing the regional seafarer death toll to at least 18 since the war began. Trade groups such as INTERCARGO and the International Maritime Organization have condemned the targeting of civilian mariners. Brent crude edged higher to $91.93 a barrel, while analysts warn that without a durable diplomatic framework, oil volumes are unlikely to recover significantly.