Oil still flowing from Hormuz could extend Iran conflict into 2027
Despite Iran’s claim that the Strait of Hormuz is shut, U.S. officials say millions of barrels continue to move, reducing pressure to end the war.
Iran asserts control over the Strait of Hormuz, claiming the channel is closed after the war began, yet U.S. data shows substantial oil movement through the passage. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. military facilitated the export of more than 15 million barrels on a single day, while the weekly average sits at about 8 million barrels; pipelines add enough to bring total shipments close to the historic 20 million-barrel flow.
U.S. officials also disclosed a corridor along Oman’s coast moving roughly 10 million barrels daily, enabled by recent bombing that disrupted Iranian radar. Vortexa’s chief one outlet noted recent daily volumes of 6-7 million barrels, peaking at 14 million. Analysts like Dan Alamariu contend that this ongoing flow weakens Iran’s leverage and may keep the war dragging on, especially as oil prices stay below $100 per barrel, while political calculations around U.S. midterms add further complexity.
Why it matters
Continued oil flow through Hormuz eases market pressure but may prolong the Iran-U.S. conflict.
How this story developed
- Jul 20 U.S. and Iran intensify air strikes over Strait of Hormuz, diplomacy stalls
- Aug 18 Trump opened back‑channel contact with the IRGC using former DNI Tulsi Gabbard as an intermediary.
- Aug 19 Only six vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, down from nine the day before, as shipowners wait for definitive guidance on reopening after the Iran war blockade.
- Aug 19 UAE announced a trade suspension with Iran after detecting two ballistic missiles.
- Aug 20 Iran announced a restructuring of senior military leaders and an update to its military doctrine to prioritize offensive operations.
- Aug 20 U.S. naval escorts have increased, moving roughly five million barrels per day in July, up from about four million in June.
- Aug 21 UAE ministry stressed a high‑alert posture after two Iranian missiles landed in its waters.
- Aug 21 Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said the United States’ turn to economic pressure proves Washington cannot defeat Iran on the battlefield.
- Aug 21 Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called for ending the conflict with the United States, saying Tehran can negotiate from a position of strength and that the world should recognize Iran’s claimed victory.
- Aug 21 Iran finalized a preferential trade agreement with Oman.
- Aug 22 President Pezeshkian publicly urged the United States to conclude hostilities.
- Aug 22 Oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually ceased, with only four commodity ships recorded on Thursday.
- Aug 23 Mohsen Rezaei, newly appointed chief of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned of seismic retaliation against any neighbor joining the U.S. economic campaign.
- Aug 23 Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi rebuked the upcoming U.S. sanctions as a desperate measure.
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