OPEC+ to Hold Oil Production Policy Steady for October Amid Middle East Tensions

Two insiders familiar with the talks said that OPEC+ will maintain its current oil output policy at the October meeting, deferring any new quota adjustments until later. The move reflects the need to first assess members' production capacity before setting baselines for 2027. Ongoing hostilities involving Iran continue to choke oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, curbing the alliance's ability to sway global prices and market share.

Earlier in August, the group approved a September production increase, finishing a step-by-step unwind of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day cut first agreed in 2023, but overall output still falls short of its goals due to the war. A separate layer of cuts covering most of the 21-country coalition remains active through 2026. The next round of capacity reviews is expected later in 2026, after which OPEC+ may consider further adjustments for the fourth quarter.