Opportunity party resurfaces as kingmaker as National and Labour tie in poll

According to the most recent 1News-Verian poll, National and Labour are dead-locked at 28% support, each projected to win 34 seats in the House. The Greens slipped to 15% and Act climbed to 10%, while Opportunity increased to 8% and Te Pāti Māori fell to 0.4%. The model assumes an overhang, expanding the parliament to 125 seats, with Opportunity’s eight seats becoming crucial for any majority.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins has indicated willingness to negotiate with Opportunity, whereas National leader Christopher Luxon has ruled out a partnership with party leader Qiulae Wong. Earlier polls showed similar tight races, and the latest figures suggest both major blocs will need Opportunity’s backing to form government.