Pakistan braces for 25% water shortfall threatening wheat harvest this Rabi season

Pakistan is preparing for an estimated 25% cut in water supplies during the Rabi cropping period that starts in early October, raising concerns for the nation’s staple wheat output. Reservoir carryover has fallen to its lowest level since 2021, with Tarbela and Mangla dams receding from recent peaks. The shortfall follows a prior Rabi season that saw wheat production fall short, prompting the government to import one million tonnes of grain.

The Indus River System Authority’s technical committee will meet to finalize water availability estimates and recommend provincial shares, while the Irsa Advisory Committee is slated to approve allocations later in October. Distribution will follow the contested three-tier formula, which historically places the burden on Sindh and Punjab and may revive inter-provincial disputes. The water shortage underscores broader food-security challenges for the coming year.