Pakistan warns India that submarine nuclear moves threaten regional strategic balance

Speaking at the second Islamabad Non-Proliferation Conference, retired Lt Gen Khalid Kidwai warned that India’s reported placement of roughly 12 nuclear warheads on the Arihant submarine and its broader missile modernisation threaten the strategic equilibrium in South Asia. Citing SIPRI data, he argued the move erodes the credibility of India’s No-First-Use stance and creates a first-strike capable posture. Kidwai said Pakistan would reconsider its own deployment choices while preserving strategic ambiguity under its Full Spectrum Deterrence doctrine.

Fellow former Strategic Plans Division chief Lt Gen Sarfraz Sattar highlighted the May 2025 conflict, noting the use of cruise, ballistic and hypersonic weapons and the risk of miscalculation without advance notification of submarine tests. Both officials urged India to study Pakistan’s deterrence policy and warned that continued naval and missile developments could push the region toward accidental nuclear escalation.