Palm oil prices expected to stay firm above RM4,600 in November amid tighter supply

Crude palm oil prices are forecast to stay above RM4,600 per tonne through November, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council. The outlook rests on seasonal declines in Malaysian output, strong biodiesel blending demand, and tighter global supplies of competing oils such as sunflower and soybean. India’s recent reduction of vegetable-oil import duties is likely to revive palm oil imports, while limited sunflower oil from the Black Sea and tightening soybean oil from South America add further support.

September export volumes fell due to vessel constraints in the Strait of Malacca and heightened competition from Indonesia, which accelerated shipments ahead of new export rules. The council expects Malaysian exports to pick up from October to December as logistics improve and global softer-oil supplies tighten. Ongoing disruptions in the Black Sea and the start of South America’s soybean planting season may keep alternative oil supplies constrained, reinforcing palm oil’s price resilience.