Peltola Pulls Ahead in Alaska Senate Polls Ahead of Thursday Debate
Democrat Mary Peltola now leads Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan in recent Alaska Senate polls as they gear up for a Thursday debate.
A series of early-October polls indicate that Democrat Mary Peltola has expanded her lead over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, with margins ranging from two to seven percentage points depending on the poll. The race, which could return a Democratic seat to the Senate for the first time since 2015, will be highlighted by a televised debate on Thursday from 7 to 8 p.m. local time. The debate follows a recent visit by President Donald Trump to Alaska, aimed at bolstering Sullivan’s re-election bid.
Prediction-market data now assign Peltola roughly a 74% probability of defeating Sullivan, up from 64% in mid-September. Voters are focused on Alaska’s high cost of living, especially gasoline prices near $5 per gallon, and concerns over the fishing industry and winter fuel supply. The event will be broadcast by Alaska Public Media, KTOO 360TV and streamed online, with radio coverage via KSKA and the Alaska Public Radio Network.
Why it matters
The outcome could alter the Senate's partisan balance, influencing national legislative direction.
How this story developed
- Sep 24 Collins holds narrow lead over Jackson in latest Maine Senate poll
- Sep 28 Columnist Joe Concha says Democratic Senate candidate Abdul el Sayed is trying to please both pro-Palestinian voters and broader Michigan constituents, even if it means compromising his principles.
- Oct 2 The Georgia Senate debate turned sharply personal as Ossoff pledged to repeal Trump-era tariffs and accused Collins of siding with the president. Collins defended the tax cuts tied to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and blamed the Inflation Reduction Act for inflation. Both candidates clashed over data-center subsidies, with Ossoff linking Collins to a billionaire donor and Collins returning the charge. The discussion also covered the ongoing conflict with Iran and a recent immigration raid at a Hyundai plant, while each candidate faced accusations of extremist associations.
- Oct 3 A Rasmussen Reports poll now shows El‑Sayed leading Rogers 47% to 44%.
- Oct 6 The first debate between Collins and Jackson is scheduled for Oct. 6.
- Oct 7 The first debate was held, with both candidates trading barbs and no clear winner emerging.
- Oct 9 The first televised debate between the Michigan Senate hopefuls was held Thursday night.
- Oct 9 A debate between Graham and Andrews is scheduled for October 11.
- Oct 10 Trump posted on Truth Social after the debate, claiming Rogers completely dominated and calling El‑Sayed a jihadist lunatic.
- Oct 11 President Trump announced a seven‑state rally tour starting on Oct. 1 ahead of the midterm elections.
- Oct 12 Collins publicly accused Ossoff of using Georgia to launch a 2028 presidential bid.
- Oct 14 Trump held a rally in Vandalia, Ohio, where he endorsed Jon Husted and called on voters to go to the polls.
- Oct 14 Former President Barack Obama released a video endorsement for Troy Jackson.
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