Pennsylvania could face $190 million SNAP bill increase if error rates stay high

Pennsylvania’s Independent Fiscal Office projected that the state could incur an extra $190 million expense on its SNAP program if the payment error rate does not fall below 6% for the 2026 fiscal year. The office cited a 9.2% error rate for 2025, and under a federal cost-share provision introduced after a Trump-backed budget reconciliation bill, the state must absorb a portion of benefit costs when error rates exceed the threshold.

Penalties increase to $380 million for error rates between 8% and 10%, with higher tiers for rates above 10%. The rule will take effect for Pennsylvania’s 2027-28 budget and mirrors a sliding-scale penalty adopted nationwide; the USDA reports a national average error rate of 10.62% and $10.1 billion in benefits paid in error. Only ten states have rates below 6%, and the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities estimates a collective $9 billion rise in SNAP costs across the country. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins stressed the need for stronger accountability, while the state Department of Human Services has not responded to comment requests.