Petrol price surge expected to lift September US CPI, easing Fed rate pressure
Higher gasoline costs are projected to push September's US consumer price index up 0.6%, the biggest rise in five months, while core inflation eases.
The September consumer price index is likely to climb 0.6% from the previous month, a jump spurred by higher gasoline prices that have approached $4.50 per gallon, the highest level in four months. Excluding volatile food and energy items, the core CPI is anticipated to rise just 0.2%, suggesting that broader inflationary forces are easing. Year-over-year, core inflation is projected at 2.5%, a slight increase from August's low.
These figures may lessen the Federal Reserve's incentive to raise interest rates at its Oct. 28 meeting, following a rate hike in September. President Donald Trump has unveiled a deal to import Russian diesel in an effort to tame fuel prices, while consumer confidence wanes and retail sales are expected to show modest growth.
Why it matters
The CPI outlook signals whether the Fed will pause rate hikes, affecting borrowing costs and the broader economy.
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