Pimco warns US 10-year Treasury yield could breach 6% amid inflation pressure

Pimco’s chief investment officer, Dan Ivascyn, warned that the US 10-year Treasury yield could reach 6% for the first time since 2000, driven by soaring oil prices and worries over the nation’s expanding public debt. He explained that recent hedge-fund activity, including the unwinding of losing positions and technical stop-out trades, makes a sharp rise from one outlet 5.29% feasible. The yield has already climbed roughly 120 basis points this year, hovering just under the 5.34% peak recorded last week.

Ivascyn cautioned that higher yields would likely weigh on riskier assets, with a level of 5.5% or more expected to cause “decent weakness” in both equity and credit markets. Global bond markets have faced heavy selling pressure as energy costs fuel inflation and AI-driven growth sustains expectations of prolonged higher rates. The US Treasury yield posted its largest quarterly increase of the century for the September quarter.