Poland estimates war-driven economic loss exceeds €113 billion
Poland's statistical office says the war in Ukraine cost the country about €113.5 billion in lost output between 2022 and 2025.
GUS released figures on September 9 showing that Poland’s economy lost an estimated PLN 490.1 bn (about €113.5 bn) in output from 2022-2025 because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The loss reflects a surge in inflation and a rise in defence spending that diverted resources from other uses. GUS President Marek Cierpiał-Wolan explained that high inflation pushed nominal wages up while real wages fell 2 % in 2022, and the agency assumed one-third of the inflation gap was war-related.
He added that defence outlays were PLN 154.2 bn higher than the level proposed in the original Homeland Defence Act draft, money that could have supported growth. The breakdown attributes PLN 292.1 bn of the loss to households, PLN 126 bn to companies and PLN 72 bn to central and local governments. Despite the shock, Poland’s GDP expanded 5.3 % in 2022, slowed to 0.2 % in 2023 amid inflation and weak German demand, then recovered to 3 % in 2024 and 3.6 % in 2025.
