Poll finds roughly seven‑in‑ten Albertans favor remaining in Canada ahead of Oct. 19 referendum
An Ipsos survey of 1,500 Canadian adults, including 600 Albertans, conducted between Sept. 18 and 22 shows that about 70 % of Albertans say they will vote to stay in Canada, a marginal two‑point dip from earlier polling. Support for a binding independence referendum sits at roughly 20 %, strongest among men, Gen Z and residents outside the two largest cities. A commentary notes that if federalist voters stay home, the result could be tighter than the poll suggests, drawing parallels to past referendums such as Brexit and the 1995 Quebec vote. The ballot’s wording is described as overly complex, which may affect turnout, and a new party modeled on the Bloc Québécois is being formed.
How this was covered
- The two sides describe this in almost entirely different words
Why it matters
The outcome will determine whether Alberta pursues a second, binding referendum on secession, potentially reshaping the province’s political landscape and Canadian unity.
How this story developed
- Sep 23 Poll finds roughly seven-in-ten Albertans favor remaining in Canada
- Oct 2 Leaders of Quebec's major parties are ramping up outreach in key ridings as the Oct. 5 vote approaches.
- Oct 5 Latest Leger poll shows the Parti Québécois ahead with 29 percent support.
- Oct 6 CAQ’s support slipped to 14 percent amid disputed voter‑card language and unverified foreign‑interference claims.
- Oct 7 PQ secured 59 seats, forming a minority government.
- Oct 8 The latest poll shows a two‑point decline in support for remaining in Canada since the May‑June poll.
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