Poll predicts AAP to secure a commanding majority in Punjab Assembly

A new opinion poll by SCORE Intelligence, carried out between September 13 and October 14, 2026, projects the Aam Aadmi Party winning between 69 and 82 of the 117 seats in Punjab's Legislative Assembly, well above the 59-seat majority mark. The same poll gives Congress a projected range of 17 to 34 seats, the BJP 4 to 12, the Shiromani Akali Dal 2 to 6, and Waris Punjab De also 2 to 6, with a single seat earmarked for other parties and six constituencies described as tightly contested.

Bhagwant Singh Mann is the preferred chief-ministerial candidate for roughly 39% of those surveyed, outpacing Congress leader Charanjit Singh Channi and SAD leader Sukhbir Singh Badal. Public assessment of the Mann government is largely positive, with about 58% rating its performance as good or very good, and regional feedback on welfare schemes such as women’s assistance, free electricity and ration programs shows majority benefit. The poll also notes a modest projected dip in AAP’s vote share to 38% from 42.01% in 2022, while Congress and BJP vote shares are expected to rise modestly.