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Poll Puts Parliament on a Tipping Point with Opportunity Party as Potential Kingmaker

A new Post/Freshwater Strategy poll shows no clear majority for National or Labour, leaving the Opportunity party in a decisive position ahead of the final leaders' debate.

The latest Post/Freshwater Strategy poll released this morning indicates that neither National nor Labour can form a governing coalition on their own. The Opportunity party has edged into a pivotal role, potentially holding the balance of power. The findings come as the election campaign approaches its climax with the final leaders' debate scheduled before the November 7 vote. Political editors Jo Moir and Craig McCulloch will continue to provide live updates and analysis throughout the remaining campaign period.

Why it matters

The poll shows a hung parliament is likely, giving smaller parties crucial sway over the next government's composition.

In this story

pollparliamentelection 2026opportunity partykingmakercoalitionleaders debatelabour
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