Poll shows Democrat Jolly holding a slim lead over Republican Donalds in Florida governor race

Change Research surveyed over 1,300 registered Florida voters, including more than 1,100 likely voters, and reported that Democrat David Jolly leads Republican Byron Donalds by three points, 47% to 44%, a difference that falls within the poll's 2.8-point margin of error. The race to succeed term-limited Governor Ron DeSantis features Donalds, who has the endorsement of Donald Trump and later DeSantis, and Jolly, a former Republican congressman who joined the Democratic Party in 2025.

Jolly's candidacy follows a pattern of former Republicans running as Democrats, echoing Charlie Crist's 2022 bid. While this poll shows Jolly ahead, earlier surveys have alternated between the two, and prediction markets still favor Donalds. The contest will determine whether the governor's mansion stays in Republican hands in a state that has trended increasingly red.