Poll shows Reform UK trailing Labour and Conservatives, facing possible hung parliament

A YouGov MRP poll of 17,000 respondents suggests Reform UK would win only 123 seats in a snap election, a dramatic fall from the 311 seats projected by a comparable poll a year earlier. Labour emerges as the largest party with 241 seats, the Conservatives follow with 130, and the Liberal Democrats are expected to retain 71 seats, positioning Sir Ed Davey as a potential kingmaker in a likely hung parliament—the first since the 2010 Tory-Lib Dem coalition.

The poll also forecasts that Reform MPs Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman would lose their constituencies to the Conservatives. Reform's slump coincides with a series of controversies, including allegations of illicit polling revealed by Channel 4 footage, the suspension of aides Dan Jukes and James Orr, and a criminal investigation launched by the Met Police. Public sentiment toward Nigel Farage remains low, with 69% holding an unfavourable view and a net favourability rating of -45, matching Keir Starmer's rating before his resignation.

The Greens are projected to win eight seats, while the SNP could rise to 40. These dynamics underscore a volatile electoral landscape ahead of the next general election.