Poll shows Reform UK trailing Labour and Conservatives, hung parliament possible
A YouGov MRP poll of 17,000 respondents suggests Reform UK would win 123 seats, Labour 241, the Conservatives 130 and the Liberal Democrats 71, pointing to a hung parliament – the first since the 2010 coalition. Another YouGov poll modelled a snap election outcome of roughly 221 Labour seats, 148 Conservative, 120 Reform, 70 Liberal Democrat, 34 Green and 34 SNP seats, also indicating a dead‑locked Commons. Labour has overtaken both Reform and the Conservatives in the latest YouGov figures, leaving Reform level with the Tories. Since Prime Minister Andy Burnham took office in July, Labour’s polling has consistently outpaced Reform, while the Greens have seen a dip in support.
Why it matters
The shifting poll landscape could determine whether the next election produces a single‑party government or forces parties into coalition negotiations.
How the sides frame it
LOW AGREEMENTLeft-leaning coverage stresses Reform UK’s scandal-ridden decline and the resulting hung-parliament scenario, centrist coverage highlights the regional impact in Wales and Labour’s near wipe-out there, while right-leaning coverage frames Reform’s collapse as a danger to right-wing power and calls for a unified Conservative front.
LEFT
Frames Reform UK’s steep decline and the prospect of a hung parliament, highlighting scandals and loss of seats.
CENTER
Reports the poll’s regional impact, noting Labour’s near wipeout in Wales and Reform’s drop after scandals.
RIGHT
Portrays Reform’s collapse as a threat to right-wing power, urging a unified Conservative front and noting market/economic concerns.
The left emphasises
- Reform’s slump coincides with a series of controversies
- Labour emerges as the largest party with 241 seats, pointing to a likely hung parliament
- Reform MPs Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman would lose their constituencies
The right emphasises
- Polls show Reform collapsing, prompting calls for a united Conservative front
- Labour would win 241 seats, outpacing Reform and the Conservatives
- Economic adviser warns tax-rise mistakes could repeat past errors
How this story developed
- Sep 3 Richard Tice condemns Chinese imports while Reform UK merch made in China is on sale
- Sep 4 National Rally leader Jordan Bardella delivered an English speech at Reform UK’s gathering, emphasizing tighter ties with the British party and joint immigration control.
- Sep 4 Reform UK invited Bardella to speak at its Birmingham conference.
- Sep 6 West Midlands Police have issued a call for the protester to come forward to assist their inquiry.
- Sep 7 The memorandum was signed, moving the idea from conference discussion to a formal agreement.
- Sep 22 YouGov's latest seat-by-seat model indicates Reform UK would secure just 123 seats if a general election were called today, a sharp drop from a similar poll a year ago. Labour is forecast to lead with 241 seats, followed by the Conservatives at 130, while the Liberal Democrats hold steady at 71. The results point to the first hung parliament since the 2010 coalition. Reform also appears to be losing its high-profile MPs Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman back to the Conservatives. The party's decline follows recent scandals involving alleged off-the-books polling and the suspension of aides Dan Jukes and James Orr, prompting a Met Police investigation.
- Sep 25 A new YouGov poll shows Reform UK level with the Conservatives and behind Labour.
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