Poll shows right-wing parties could outnumber governing coalition even on joint list

The United Surveys poll commissioned by IBRiS for WP, using telephone and online interviews of a representative sample of 1,000 Poles, estimates that a joint list of the ruling coalition would earn 103 seats for PiS, 67 for Confederation and 48 for the Confederation of the Polish Crown, totaling 232 seats. This exceeds the 231 seats required for an outright majority by four seats, despite the coalition’s combined vote share being lower than the sum of the parties running alone.

In a scenario where parties run independently, Civic Coalition (KO) would receive 187 seats and the Left 30, while PSL and Poland 2050 would fail to cross the electoral threshold. The poll also notes that a portion of PSL voters would prefer other right-wing options, but such shifts are considered marginal due to the small size of those electorates. Seat allocations were calculated with a tool developed by Professor Jarosław Flis of Jagiellonian University.