Polling expert warns early election could let Reform UK outpace Labour

Sir John Curtice argues that Andy Burnham lacks the numbers to trigger an early general election without risking a loss of seats, as Reform UK could emerge as the largest party in the Commons. Although Reform’s polling has slipped from a nine-point advantage over Labour a year earlier, its geographically balanced support could translate into a higher seat count. A YouGov survey this week places Reform and Labour level at 23% each, with the Conservatives close behind at 20%.

The party recently disclosed a record £36 million contribution from cryptocurrency founder Ben Delo, despite ongoing scandals and a police probe into its donations. Curtice notes Labour’s decline has been most pronounced in areas it previously dominated, a pattern that could benefit Reform. He warns that an early election would sacrifice many Conservative MPs and give Burnham only a short-term gain.