Polls Show Flávio Bolsonaro Leading Lula Ahead of Brazil Runoff Vote
Most recent polls place Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as Brazil prepares for the October 25 runoff.
Seventeen recent polls from Brazil's top survey firms show Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the majority of cases, though the differences lie within the margin of error. Bolsonaro won the first round on October 4 but did not secure the required 50% threshold, prompting a runoff on October 25. The candidates held a chaotic first debate and are set for a second, structured debate in Rio de Janeiro on Friday night, broadcast by TV Globo.
A dispute over mutual disclosure of financial, tax and phone records has led to a legal back-and-forth at the Superior Electoral Tribunal, with Justice André Mendonça saying each side can obtain the data independently. Neither side has yet made the requested information public. The runoff will decide Brazil's leadership for the next four years, with over 158 million voters expected to cast ballots.
Why it matters
The runoff will determine Brazil's political direction and policies for the next four years.
How this story developed
- Oct 4 Portugal sees alcohol dependence surge while Brazil heads to tightly contested election
- Oct 5 First‑round results show Flávio Bolsonaro ahead with 47.1% and Lula at 45%, triggering a runoff on Oct 25.
- Oct 5 Senator Flavio Bolsonaro said the recent vote gave the right a dominant majority in Brazil's Senate and Chamber of Deputies.
- Oct 6 Flavio Bolsonaro secured a first‑round victory, making him the runoff frontrunner.
- Oct 9 Augusto Cury announced he will vote for Bolsonaro in the runoff.
- Oct 10 Former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema and former President Michel Temer publicly endorsed Flavio Bolsonaro.
- Oct 10 President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s campaign says Meta restricted his content on Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp as the presidential runoff approaches.
- Oct 13 Senator Flavio Bolsonaro announced he will vote for a constitutional amendment that cuts Brazil’s standard workweek from 44 to 40 hours, reversing his party’s previous opposition.
- Oct 16 Senate ratified the constitutional amendment following Senator Flavio Bolsonaro’s earlier announcement of support.
- Oct 16 A new Datafolha poll released Thursday shows Bolsonaro maintaining a narrow lead over Lula within the margin of error.
- Oct 19 The first televised debate between the two candidates was held a week before the runoff.
- Oct 20 Lula’s closing remarks were interrupted when the moderator announced he had run out of time.
- Oct 20 The court increased the daily penalty on Meta.
- Oct 22 Meta was ordered to demonstrate compliance with equal‑treatment rules within 24 hours.
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